A Pair of Smart, Overlooked Signings Highlight This Week in MLB

The baseball year has began rather quietly, at least compared to the frenetic pace of free agency last month.

As of this morning, the two most notable acquisitions this week came in the NL Central: the Cubs have agreed to a one-year, $720,000 deal with first baseman Eric Hosmer, and the Brewers and lefthander Wade Miley have agreed to a one-year, $4.5 million contract, which includes a mutual option for 2024. Both deals are pending physicals.

Neither of these moves should dramatically impact the division race. The Cardinals, who finished seven games ahead of second-place Milwaukee and 19 up on Chicago, still look like the best team in the Central. That said, both Hosmer and Miley are smart signings for their new teams.

The Cubs have had an interesting offseason with most of their moves coming at low cost with relatively low risk and the potential for a huge, if unlikely, payoff. Center fielder Cody Bellinger (one year, $17.5 million with a mutual option) is a 27-year-old former MVP. Sure, his production at the plate has cratered over the last three years, but he remains an elite defender who runs the bases well and hits for power. Catcher Tucker Barnhart (two years, $6.5 million) is a two-time Gold Glove winner. Righthander Jameson Taillon (four years, $68 million) is a reliable starting pitcher whose 100 ERA+ indicates he’s been exactly league average in each of the past two seasons. Shortstop Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177 million) is more expensive than Bellinger, Barnhart, Taillion and Hosmer, but he also has the highest floor at a premium position—and he’s far more affordable than the other three top shortstops who were available this offseason. Chicago is strong up the middle defensively, and that’s incredibly important for a team with a rotation that pitches to contact.

Hosmer, 33, is another low-cost, low-risk addition. He’s been an above average hitter in seven of the last eight seasons, and even in 2019, his down year (94 OPS+), he hit .265 with 22 home runs and 99 RBIs in 160 games. The Cubs would gladly take that from Hosmer in ’23, especially because they are paying him only the league minimum; the Padres, who traded him to the Red Sox last August, owe him nearly $13 million in each of the next three seasons.

Let’s be clear, it would be shocking to see Hosmer hit 20 home runs this season. He hit 12 over 151 games in 2021 and eight over 104 last year. Still, he was an above average hitter in each of those years, and the Cubs desperately needed a league-average bat at first base. Last season, their first basemen combined for a 69 OPS+, meaning they were 31% worse than the league-average first baseman. Hosmer represents a major improvement, and at the same cost they’d be paying an unproven rookie. Not bad.

Meanwhile, Miley, 36, will slide in nicely as the Brewers’ fifth starter, behind a most formidable 1–4 of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer and Freddy Peralta. Miley was injured for most of last season, but he was quite good when he was on the field (3.16 ERA in nine games). He is the posterboy for the proverbial crafty lefties, with a six-pitch mix that keeps batters off-balanced and induces soft contact.

It’s worth noting that Miley turned his career around back in 2018, when he was pitching for Milwaukee on a one-year deal. This reunion is a great fit for both him and the Brewers.